EUR/JPY's accelerates further to as low as 111.10 so far today and break mentioned target of 61.8% projection of 123.31 to 113.41 from 117.74 at 111.62. At this point, intraday bias remains on the downside and EUR/JPY should now target 100% projection at 107.84. Break will put key support level at 105.42 into focus. On the upside, above 112.33 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring recovery first. But upside should be limited by 113.49 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that rebound from 105.42 medium term was merely a correction and has completed at 123.31 already. Whole down trend from 2008 high of 169.96 was not finished yet and is still target a new low below 105.42. Nevertheless, in that case, we'd start to look for reversal signal again around 100 psychological level unless weekly MACD would break it's up trend line.






12/07/2011 GBP/JPY Daily Analysis

GBP/JPY drops to as low as 126.31 so far today and intraday bias remains on the downside for 100% projection of 140.02 to 130.27 from 135.11 at 125.36 next. Break will target key support level at 122.15 next. On the upside, above 127.24 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But recovery should be limited by 128.23 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, choppy fall from 163.05 is treated as second leg of the consolidation pattern that started at 2009 low of 118.81. The failure to sustain above 55 weeks EMA and subsequent decline suggests that rebound from 122.15 was possibly just a correction. That is, fall from 163.05 is still in progress for another low below 122.40. Outlook will remain cautiously bearish as long as 135.11 resistance holds. Nevertheless, we'd be watching for reversal signal once again around 118.81 (2009 low). On the upside, break of 135.11 resistance will signal that rebound from 122.15 is resuming. Decisive break of 140.02 resistance will now confirm medium term reversal and should start the third leg of consolidation pattern from 118.81 for 163.05 resistance and above.


12/07/2011 EUR/CHF Daily Analysis

EUR/CHF's decline is still in progress and drops to new record low of 1.1629 so far today. Intraday bias remains on the downside and further fall is expected to long term projection target at 1.1516 next. On the upside, above 1.1751 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But recovery should be limited by 1.1965 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.6827 (2007 high) is still in progress and in any case, medium term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3243 resistance holds. The current down trend should target 138.2% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.1516. On the upside, break of 1.2344 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term bottoming. Or we'll stay bearish in the cross.


12/07/2011 EUR/GBP Daily Analysis

EUR/GBP's fall extends further to as low as 0.8760 so far today and intraday bias remains on the downside for 0.8720 support first. As discussed before, the five wave sequence from 0.8284 has completed at 0.99083 already. Further decline should be seen through 0.9720 towards 0.8610 key support level next. On the upside, above 0.8834 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations first. But recovery should be limited by 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 0.8924) and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9799 (2008) should be unfolding as a consolidation pattern in the long term up trend. The first leg is completed with three waves down to 0.8067. As long as 0.8610 support holds, choppy rise from 0.8067, the second leg of the consolidation, is still in favor to continue towards 0.9410/9799 resistance zone. Strong resistance is expected there to limit upside and bring reversal for another medium term fall as the third leg. However, break of 0.8061 support will in turn indicates that the third leg of the correction has already started for another low below 0.8067.


12/07/2011 USD/JPY Daily Analysis

USD/JPY's fall from 81.46 accelerates to 79.72 so far today and intraday bias remains on the downside for 79.56/69 support zone. Decisive break there will confirm resumption of whole fall from 85.51 and should target 61.8% projection of 85.51 to 79.56 from 82.22 at 78.54 next. On the upside, above 80.10 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations but upside should be limited below 80.82 resistance and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, note that USD/JPY's rebound from 76.41 low was held by medium term long term falling trend line as well as the 55 weeks EMA. Thus, down trend from 124.13 could still be in progress. Current fall from 85.51 might now extend through 75.98 for a new record low. In any case, break of 85.51 is needed to revive the case that USD/JPY's down trend has finished. Otherwise, we'll stay cautiously bearish in the pair.


12/07/2011 USD/CHF Daily Analysis

USD/CHF forms a temporary low at 0.8330 and intraday bias is turned neutral for the moment. At this point, another fall remains in favor as long as 0.8525/50 resistance zone remains intact. Below 0.9330 will bring retest on 0.8275 first and break will target 0.8 psychological level. Nevertheless, decisive break of 0.8525/50 resistance zone will be an important signal of near term reversal and should pave the way to 0.8945 resistance.

In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.1730 is still in progress and there is no signal of reversal yet. Such decline is expected to extend to 100% projection of 1.1730 to 0.9462 from 1.0065 at at 0.7797. On the upside, break of 0.8945, will suggest medium term bottoming and in such case, stronger rebound could be seen back to 0.9462, 1.0065 resistance zone.



12/07/2011 GBP/USD Daily Analysis

GBP/USD's decline extends further to as low as 1.5800 so far today and breaks mentioned target of 100% projection of 1.6746 to 1.6058 from 1.6546 at 1.5858. intraday bias remains on the downside and further fall should be seen to 61.8% projection of 1.6546 to 1.5911 from 1.6140 at 1.5748 next. On the upside, above 1.5930 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But upside should be limited below 1.6140 resistance and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidation to long term down trend from 2007 high of 2.1161. Rise from 1.4229 is treated as the third leg of such consolidation. Current development suggests that such rebound is possibly completed at 1.6746 already. Sustained trading below 1.5935 support affirms this case and should bring deeper fall towards 1.5344 for confirmation. In such case, deeper fall should then be seen towards 1.3503/4229 support zone. Nevertheless, above 1.6745 will invalidate this view and bring another through 1.7043 resistance instead.
12/07/2011 EUR/USD Daily Analysis

EUR/USD drops further to as low as 1.3837 so far today and the strong break of 1.3969 support invalidated the triangle scenario. Instead, whole correction from 1.4939 has resumed. Intraday bias remains on the downside for medium term trend line support (now at 1.3725). On the upside, above 1.4061 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But risk will remain on the downside as long as 1.4577 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, EUR/USD is still trading above medium term trend line support from 1.1875 (now at 1.3725) and thus, rise from there should still be in progress. We'd continue to favor the bullish case that correction from 1.6039 has completed with three waves down to 1.1875 already and. Above 1.4939 will target 1.5143 resistance first. Break will affirm the bullish case of long term up trend resumption for another high above 1.6039. However, sustained trading below the mentioned trend line support will indicate that there should at least be one more medium term decline, possibly for below 1.1875, before correction from 1.6039 completes.
12/07/2011 AUD/USD Daily Analysis

AUD/USD's fall from 1.0787 accelerates to as low as 1.0524 so far today. Intraday bias is on the downside and deeper decline could still be seen. But after all, we're treating price actions from 1.0789 as a correction. Also, we're still favoring the case that correction pattern from 1.1011 is finished with three waves down to 1.0390 already. Hence, downside is still expected to be contained well above 1.0390 and bring another rise. On the upside, above 1.0630 minor resistance will flip bias to the upside for 1.0787/9 resistance first.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.8066 is part of the up trend from 2008 low of 0.6008 and is still in healthy status. Such up trend should target 100% projection of 0.6008 to 0.9404 from 0.8066 at 1.1462 on resumption. On the downside, Break of 1.0182 resistance turned support is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Or we'll stay bullish in AUD/USD.
12/07/2011 USD/CAD Daily Analysis

USD/CAD's rebound from 0.9599 extends further to as high as 0.9778 so far today and intraday bias is on the upside for further rally. Though, with 0.9912 resistance intact, we're still favoring the case that medium term down trend is not over yet and would expect another decline ahead. Below 0.9658 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for 0.9559 first.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook in USD/CAD remains bearish and the down trend from 2009 high of 1.3063 is expected to continue lower. Nevertheless, even in that case, we'd again start to look for reversal signal as USD/CAD approaches 0.9056 key support (2007 low). On the upside, however, break of 0.9912 will be signal that 0.9444 might be the medium term bottom already and should turn outlook bullish for a test on 1.0851 key resistance next.